Grading the Grid: America’s Energy System Isn’t Ready for AI Demand

Written by Gianna White

If America’s energy sector were to receive a grade, it would get a D+. At least according to the ASCE’s 2025 Infrastructure Report Card. Not quite failing, but definitely a grade that warrants a call home.

U.S. electricity demand is rising again after a decade of being mostly flat. Electricity use is on track to set new records, with growth mainly being driven by data centers. U.S. data centers consumed about 183 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024, equivalent to powering roughly 17 million homes for a year. As tech companies race to build AI infrastructure, energy demand is expected to climb roughly 133% to 426 TWh by 2030, or the equivalent of 41 million homes.

If demand is spiking, why can’t we just build more supply? Adding power to the grid isn’t like flipping a switch. Transmission lines, interconnection, and local infrastructure are expanding much slower than new power is arriving. Each piece of the grid needs to be permitted, financed, and built, a process that takes years, and sometimes decades. For example, consider SunZia  — the largest clean energy infrastructure project in United States history. The wind energy component of the project, a 3.5 GW wind farm in New Mexico capable of powering roughly a million homes, received unanimous local approval just five months after developers acquired development rights. In stark contrast, the transmission portion of the project, meant to carry power from New Mexico to high-energy demand areas in Arizona and California, was a different story entirely. SunZia Wind’s planning began in 2006.  The project was finally approved in 2022 after years of bureaucratic and permitting delays, and officially began operating in June 2026. It took seventeen years to permit—not build—a transmission line, as the inter-state project had to navigate a patchwork of regulatory frameworks at the local, state, and federal level. Construction for the wind farm couldn’t begin until the transmission line was approved. SunZia is not the only example: there are currently hundreds of gigawatts of generation and storage waiting in interconnection queues unable to come online until they’re connected. If this is the speed at which we’re building out the grid, it will still be catching up long after the data centers are already running.

These delays aren’t just a local issue – they extend to the federal level. The renewable energy sector is undergoing a number of attacks from the Trump administration, ranging from attempts to block projects already under construction to deploying barriers to permitting and land‑use at the federal level. Despite this, the market has made its choice. In 2025, renewables accounted for 88% of new capacity added to the grid, according to a report from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). Additionally, FERC’s projections for future capacity growth showed renewables would continue to account for ~84% of added capacity through 2028. Renewable energy has become the cheapest source of new electricity in most of the country, and developers are betting on it accordingly. Developers plan to add a record 55 GW of utility-scale renewable and 24 GW of utility energy storage in 2026 alone. However, that potential can’t be tapped without the transmission infrastructure to carry it, making the administration’s attempts to prioritize fossil fuels a distraction from the underlying issue. Our energy priorities are so misaligned that even the D+ grade starts to look generous.

If America truly wants to meet the demands of an AI-driven economy, it must aggressively reform transmission permitting. Regardless of the energy source, if it can’t get to users, it’s wasted energy. Speeding up transmission has been one of the biggest struggles in permitting reform in recent decades. Yet, the administration has shown it can clear permitting hurdles when it wants to, such as moving to gut NEPA reviews and fast-tracking data centers sited on federal land. That same urgency hasn’t reached transmission; the federal backstop siting authority that Congress expanded in 2021 remains unfinalized. Instead, the administration has largely focused on trying – and largely failing –  to roll back renewable energy while propping up the past, issuing emergency orders to force aging coal plants to run past retirement — often over the objections of the grid operators and at billions in cost to ratepayers. The administration is fighting the wrong battle, focusing more on reshaping the energy mix to prioritize fossil fuels than on passing effective transmission legislation.

Grid expansion can’t be another policy issue that becomes overly partisan or bogged down by the culture war. Tech companies aren’t waiting to build data centers. Energy demand won’t wait for bureaucrats to reach consensus. A 2025 report from the Department of Energy has warned that blackout frequency may rise by up to 100 times by 2030. If the U.S. can’t improve the grid —  it’ll be lights out for millions of Americans.


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